Monday, April 17, 2006

Post Thaksin: Hard task for People Organization

UPDATE: Today, I received an reply email from a ASA close friends. He is Ake. For those who met him in the 2002 International Youth Camp in Kathmandu, he was the Secretary-General of Student Federation of Thailand. Even he is working in the corporation, his interest and concern about the national and regional politic never reduce.

I will upload some of his current analysis about the political situation in Thailand. It is very thoughtful and critical for the people organizations too. For those who want to know more about the political development in Thailand, the April 19 Senate election will be another thing to watch.

Here is what Ake wrote:

"The decision of Thaksin to step down as the Prime Minister reduces political tension, at least for now. People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), unsatisfied with the move, continues to campagim against Thaksin regime. They claims that what is dangerous for the Thai society is not only thaksin, but also the Thaksin regime and thaksin ideology (by which they mean 1. extreme neo trade liberalism and 2. absolutepower and authoritarianism). They claim that Thaksin is only a leader of this set of ideals. They will from now make an ultimate move to sweep away Thaksin regime and ideology. (which i dont understand how or what action they will take.)"

What's next? New government will be formed by TRT, yet new PM will not be Thaksin, but one of his man who he can control. The new government and the new house will then organise a new body, comprise of all stakeholders, hopefully to act independently and responsible for amendment of the constitution.

There lies the next battle field where all sorts of people will push hard to ensure that their agendas, which serve their benefits, will be there in the new constitution, including elites, royalists, PAD, TRT, other capitalists and of course, people orgainzations. The house will resolve itself again after the amendment of the new constitution opening door to the new general election.

We see no violence or military coup coming in sight at this point in time. Yet people organizations in Thailand have to work hard if they want to push for their agendas. Please be aware that people organizations are not even sure what they want for this amendment. Worse, they are fragmented and don't for example. So, it will be difficult for them if they still take a defensive approach.

Our suggestions:

1. All people organizations have to come together and agree upon what they really want. What will be the best offer for the interests of the Thai society (by which i mean the exploited, the poor and the lesser opportunity)

2. Then, together and hands in hands, take the political tide, which thanks to PAD who helps created it, campaign for thier resolution or their new draft. That's the only way to take the stage back from the elites and the politicians.

Hard tasks, but worth fighting for. If success, rewards will be huge and longer-term oriented. But if they still keep arguing and fighting with each other, maybe for their faces or for the leadership roles, thai people will lose and gain nothing from this 2 months long movement.